Word count: 1844



Prys

Ukubheka emuva maqondana nentengiso kakolo ngo-2007 



Instruksies: 

USakkie van Zyl, isazi sezomnotho: Market research, Commodity Servicing, Grain SA

Intengiso kakolo emhlabeni jikelele neyeSafex

Usuku

Ukolo waseSafex

Indleko yomkhumbi yokuletha ukolo eRSA

Ukusuka eArgentinia ukuya eSouth AFrica

Ukusuka eUSA Gulf ukuya eSouth Africa

Ukugcina kweviki



Kumanzima ukukholwa ukuthi intengiso kakolo yaseSafex ngoFebhruwari 2007 beyingaphansi kweR1880 / ithani uma sicabanga ukuthi ifike kuR3 460 / ithani ngo-18 Septhemba. 



Intengiso ekhuphukile beyiletha okukhanyayo emehlweni kwabakhiqizi kakolo, kodwa ngeliqiniso labo abthole inzuzo yilaba abalondoloze ababeke ingxenye yesivuno sabo sa2006/2007, noma labo abakhiphe isivumelwano sesikhathi eside kuSafex. Kubi, kodwa abekho abakhiqizi abakwazi ukulondoloza nokubeka umvuno wabo ngesikhathi eside emva kokuvuna, kanjalo kukhona ingozi yokungatholi intengiso enhle. Abakhiqizi bangabuza ukuthi bezikuphi izazi ezifanele zinekeze ulwazi mayelana nale nkinga? Kungani abalimi (abakhiqizi) bebangatholi umlayezo oqondile? 



Kuyalimaza, kodwa imininingwane yolwazi engatholakala ngesikhathi esithile akuyiyo into engakusiza ukuthatha isinqumo esiqondile maqondana nokumaketa umvuno wakho. Kukhona ezinye izinto ezingaba nomthelelo, mhlawumbe izulu lingaba into enkulu, ezizokwenza ukuthi intengiso yehle ikhuphuke. Kanjalo-ke askwazi ukusho ukuthi kuzokwenzekani ngaphambili ngeqiniso. 



Ithebula 1 likhombisa intengiso kakolo emhlabeni jikelele esuka ngo2005, futhi kukhona umboniso ongakwenzeka emhlabeni jikelele ngentengiso lomkhiqizo ngo-2007 obekwe phansi ngokugcina kokaFebhruwari, konke kuhlanganisiwe nemiboniso ephuma ngesikhathi esimfusha esingemuva kwethu. Umboniso obhekela phambili ngomkhiqizo emhlabeni jikelele ngo-2007 ukhombisa inani elingafika ku-623,7 million tons, ngoba bacabanga ukuthi kukhona izindawo eziningi ezinsha ezitshaliweyo. Uma lesi silinganiso besigcina ukuba iqiniso, kuzokusho ukuthi kuzoba khona okolo ongu-33,5 million tons (6,7%) okolo emaketini ngo-2006. Emhlabeni jikelele kudliwa okolo mhlawumbe olingana na-620 million tons, lokhu kusho ukuthi bekuzobakhona ukolo okwanele kuzo zonke izindawo ezidinga ukolo. 



IThebula1: Umkhiqizo kakolo emhlabeni jikelele (million tons).

 
 
2005
 
2006
 
2007
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Feb
 
Sep
 
Sep vs Feb
 

 
Izizwe ezibalulekile lapho kuthunyelwa khona
 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
Argentinia
 
12,6
 
14,2
 
14
 
14,5
 
0,5
 

 
Australia
 
25,4
 
9,8
 
21
 
13,5
 
-7,5
 

 
Canada
 
26,8
 
25,3
 
25
 
20,5
 
-4,5
 

 
European Union
 
122,7
 
125,3
 
137,5
 
121,7
 
-15,8
 

 
USA
 
57,3
 
49,3
 
56
 
57,5
 
1,5
 

 
Ezinye izizwe ezibalulekile
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
China
 
97,5
 
104,5
 
100
 
107
 
7
 

 
India
 
68,6
 
69,4
 
74
 
74,9
 
0,9
 

 
Pakistan
 
21,7
 
21,7
 
22
 
23,3
 
1,3
 

 
Kazakstan
 
11
 
12,5
 
12,5
 
14,5
 
2
 

 
Russia
 
47,6
 
44,9
 
48
 
46
 
-2
 

 
Ukraine
 
18,7
 
13,8
 
16,5
 
13,7
 
-2,8
 

 
Konke emhlabeni jikelele 
 
620,3
 
590,2
 
623,7
 
601,4
 
-22,3
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
Isisuso: International Grain Board.



Ngenxa yesimo sezulu esingaqonakali kahle, izizwe ezahlukene ezikhiqiza ukolo behlise umboniso wazo mayelana nenani lomkhiqizo ngesikhathi sika2007 kaningi, ngokugcina kwaSepthemba 07, umboniso womkhiqizo ufike ku601,4 million tons. Lokhu bekungaphansi nge22,3 million tons kwenani lomboniso waFebhruwari 2007  – lokhu kudale ukwanda okumangazwayo kwentengiso kakolo emhlabeni jikelele. 



IGrafi 1: Inyanga eduze yasenkontilaki yaseSafex, nentengiso kakolo emkhunjini waseArgentinia neUSA Hard Red Wheat (ngamaUS Dollars ngethani) 

Isisuso (lapho sikuthola khona: International Grain Board, Safex and the Grain SA data base).



Intengiso kakolo eArgentinia beyiku$177/ton ngoFebhruwari 07 yase yakhuphuka yaya ku$355 / ton (iGrafi 1) . Lokhu kusho ukuthi ikhuphuke nga$158/ton noma 89%. Lokhu kwenzeke ngaphandle kokukhuphuka kwenani lomvuno ebelingaphezulu komboniso kaFebruwari. Intengiso ebizwa ngokuthi “free-on-board” yeUSA Hard Red yaseGulf beyenza kanjalo futhi ngaphandle kokukhuphuka kwenani lomvuno kakolo ngamathani angu-1,5 eAmerika ngokusuka ekugcineni kwaFebhruwari  (iThebula 1). 



Ngenxa yizulu elibi eAustralia, eKanada naseEuropean Union, umvuno wehle kakhulu – lokhu kwenze ukuthi nenani likakolo elibekiwe emhlabeni jikelele lehlile ngo2007 – futhi lokhu kucindezele intengiso kakolo emhlabeni jikelele ukuze ikhuphuke. 



IGrafi 1 likhombisa intengiso yeSafex (enyangeni eduze), ngama$/ton bese kulandela intengiso yomhlaba jikelele ngo2007. Ngokusuka kwaFebruary 2007, intengiso yeSafex ikhuphuke nge$200/ton, malingana nentengiso ekhuphuke nge$158/ton eArgentinia, nokukhuphuka nge$143/ton kweUSA Hard Red. 



Ukukhuphuka kwentengiso kakolo okukhulu lapha kithi uma sikulinganisa nentengiso emhlabeni jikelele kwenzeke kakhulukazi ngenxa ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokuletha ukolo lapha ngemikhumbi. NgoFebhruwari 2007, kwakubiza $43/ton ukuthutha ukolo ovela eArgentinia, na$48/ton ukuthutha ovela eGulf. Bekukhona futhi isidingo esikhulu sokuthola imikhumbi ethutha ukolo, lokhu kwenze ukuthi indleko yokuthutha ikhuphuke ngokuphinda kabili. Ngokwamanje kubiza $73/ton ukushipa ukolo ovela eArgentinia, kubiza $88/ton ukushipa ukolo ovela emathekwini aseGulf kuze ufike lapha (iGrafi 2). NamaRandi angu6,85/$, kusho ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwendleko yokuthutha ngokusuka kwaFebhruwari 2007 sekufike kuR219/ton. 



IGrafi 2: Izindleko zentutho eza eNingizimu Afrika (ngeUS $ ngethani)

Isisuso: Internasional Grain Board.



Ngokugcina

Umkhiqizo kakolo emhlabeni jikelele uthembeka ukwehla, lokhu kwenze ukuthi intengiso kakolo emhlabeni jikelele ikhuphuke, futhi ngenxa yisidingo lapho eNingizimu Afrika kufanele singenise (import) okuyisithathu okudliwayo/okubizwayo, ukukhuphuka kwentengiso emhlabeni jikelele kwenze ukuthi nalapha intengiso ikhuphuke. Ukwanda kwezindleko zokuthutha ukolo ovela phesheya nakho kucindezela intengiso yalapha. Ukukhuphuka kwentengiso emhlabeni jikelele kuphinda kwakhombisa futhi ukuthi isimo sezulu sinomthelela omkhulu lapho sibheka intengiso yokudla okuvela ekulimeni. Sazi kahle futhi ukuthi asingeke sikwazi ukuqonda ukuthi inzalamvelo noma izulu lizokwenzani. 



